全球气候治理背景下的船舶营运能效评级方法

为共同应对全球气候变化,国际海事组织(IMO)计划制定一套强制性船舶营运能效(碳排放强度)国际机制,与现有强制性船舶设计能效机制互为补充.然而,由于受诸多因素影响,船舶营运能效具有较大的随机性和不确定性,为相关国际机制的构建带来巨大挑战.文中通过构建带有年份虚拟变量的碳强度分位数回归模型,实现了对不同时期海运船队碳排放...

Methodology for rating the operational energy efficiency performance of ships in the context of global climate governance

In a joint effort to address global climate change, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has considered imposing a regulatory regime on the operational energy efficiency of ships to complement the existing mandatory mechanism on design efficiency. However, the random and uncertain nature of the operational energy efficiency of ships poses a significant challenge to performance regulation. In this paper, a quantile regression model, with dummy variables representing the observation calendar years, is applied to quantify the level, the scale and the skewness of the distribution of the operational carbon intensity performance of international shipping. A rating mechanism is further constructed on this basis, which is able to guide the performance of international shipping as a whole in line with the levels of ambition, whilst being robust to certain individual deviations. This rating mechanism is demonstrated using the bulk fleet of China as a sample, which shows its competency as a systematic solution for scientific evaluation of the operational energy efficiency of ships.