基于均一化资料的广州近百年气温变化特征研究

利用RHtest软件结合台站元数据对广州1908—2019年平均气温进行非均一性检验和订正,结果显示在1912、1928、1942、1988、1995、2004和2010年有7个显著的非均一间断点,订正后升温速率为1.39℃/(100 a),较订正前显著增加,具有准50 a和准3 a的显著周期。运用DB16正交小波分析其多时间尺度变化特征,结果显示方差贡献最大的是趋势分量,其次是准3 a和准6 a周期分量。趋势分量从20世纪40年代开始呈现持续的升温趋势;20世纪80年代中期至20世纪末的快速增暖是准50 a和准20 a周期分量的上升期叠加于趋势分量的结果;1998—2014年增暖停滞特征是准50 a、准20 a和准10 a这3个年代际周期分量的降温位相叠加在趋势分量上引起的。

Study on the change characteristics of Guangzhou centennial air temperature based on the homogenization data

RHtest software and station metadata were used to detect and adjust artificial shifts of the annual average temperature of Guangzhou during 1908-2019. The results showed that there were seven significant abrupt change points in 1912, 1928, 1942, 1988, 1995, 2004 and 2010. The temperature increasing rate was 1.39℃/(100 a), which was higher than the series without homogenization adjustment, with significant quasi-50-year and quasi-3-year periods. DB16 orthogonal wavelet was applied to analyze the multiple time scale changing characteristics. The trend component had the largest variance contribution, followed by quasi-3-year and quasi-6-year periodic components. The trend component began to show a continuous warming trend from the 1940s. The rapid warming from the middle 1980s to the end of the 20th century was the result of superposition of the rising phase of the quasi-50-year period component, quasi-20-year period component and the trend component. The warming hiatus from 1998 to 2014 was caused by the superposition of the cooling phase of the quasi-50-year period component, quasi-20-year period component and the quasi-10-year period component.