基于证据权重法的海南岛金多金属矿成矿预测研究

在系统总结海南岛金多金属矿区域成矿规律的基础上，分析并提取了包括地层、构造、岩浆岩、航磁、化探、遥感等多元有利找矿证据因子，建立了海南岛金多金属矿证据权重预测模型，并采用MRAS软件证据权重模块对研究区进行2 km×2 km的网格单元划分及后验概率计算。根据网格单元后验概率计算值大小及地质矿产空间分布特征，将研究区分三级进行了成矿远景区圈定:A级成矿远景区3个，B级成矿远景区4个、C级成矿远景区24个。研究结果表明，90%的已知矿床（点）位于成矿远景区，显示了良好的预测效果，其结果为该区的找矿工作提供了重要的科学依据。 

STUDY ON METALLOGENIC PROGNOSIS FOR GOLD POLYMETALLIC DEPOSITS IN HAINAN ISLAND BASED ON EVIDENCE WEIGHTING METHOD

Based on systematical analysis of regional metallogenic regularity of gold polymetallicdeposits in Hainan Island, multivariate favorable geological evidences such as strata, structure,magmatic rock, aeromagnetic, geochemical exploration, and remote sensing data were analyzed andextracted. With the help of MRAS, the authors established an evidence weight prediction model forgold polymetallic deposits in this area. The study area was divided into 2 km· 2 km grid units atfirst and then the posterior probability of every grid unit was calculated. According to the magnitudeof evidence weight and the distribution characteristics of mineral resources, the study area wasclassified into 3 A-level prospective targets, 4 B-level prospective targets and 24 C-level prospectivetargets. Research results showed that about 90% deposits were located in metallogenic prospectivearea showing a good prediction effect, which provided an important scientific basis for prospectingwork in this region.