On the sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting |
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Authors: | Jingjing Zhang Shujuan Hu Wansuo Duan |
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Affiliation: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou, China;2. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China;3. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China |
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Abstract: | Using the outputs from CMCC-CM in CMIP5 experiments,the authors identified sensitive areas for targeted observations in ENSO forecasting from the perspective of the initial error growth(IEG)method and the particle filter(PF)method.Results showed that the PF targets areas over the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,while the sensitive areas determined by the IEG method are slightly to the east of the former.Although a small part of the areas targeted by the IEG method also lie in the southeast equatorial Pacific,this does not affect the large-scale overlapping of the sensitive areas determined by these two methods in the eastern equatorial Pacific.Therefore,sensitive areas determined by the two methods are mutually supportive.When considering the uncertainty of methods for determining sensitive areas in realistic targeted observation,it is more reasonable to choose the above overlapping areas as sensitive areas for ENSO forecasting.This result provides scientific guidance for how to better determine sensitive areas for ENSO forecasting. |
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Keywords: | Targeted observation ENSO Particle filter Initial error |
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