战略耦合对区域经济韧性的影响研究——以广东省为例

战略耦合与区域经济韧性分别为关系经济地理学派与演化经济地理学派的关键变量,在当下已有的研究中,前者缺乏区域长期演化的动态视角,后者忽视区域外部的经济联系对区域内部的影响,二者缺乏理论对话;同时,战略耦合在当下缺乏定量研究,成为两个学派之间进行融合的阻碍之一。因此,以广东省21个城市为例,基于回归分析、地理探测器等方法,从区域经济中外资的出口主导、生产主导、技术主导3个维度来测度战略耦合程度对区域经济韧性的影响,以此尝试推动两个学派的互动。研究结论：① 证实战略耦合对区域的经济韧性有着显著的影响,其中外资的生产主导影响最为显著,其次是外资的技术主导,影响最小的是外资的出口主导;② 中国港澳台地区投资与其他外资对区域经济韧性的作用机制存在根本性差异,体现在区域韧性变动的过程中,二者在技术主导和生产主导维度上的影响效果相反;③ GDP、FDI、出口总额等传统的全球化程度的测度指标不适合作为测度战略耦合对区域经济韧性影响的重要变量。本研究通过方法的创新,实现了对战略耦合的一次完整的定量测度,进一步实现了关系经济地理学派与演化经济地理学派在方法上的一次理论互动,为全球生产网络后续更加深入的量化研究奠定了基础。

The impact of strategic coupling on regional economic resilience under globalization:A case study of Guangdong province

Relational economic geography and evolutionary economic geography, two main genres in nowadays economic geography, are searching for theoretical dialogue and integration. Strategic coupling, a key variable of relational economic geography, is lack of dynamic perspective of regional long-term evolution, while regional economic resilience, a key variable of evolutionary economic geography, neglects the influence on the region of external economy system. Furthermore, the lack of quantitative research in strategic coupling becomes one of the obstacles to integration between the two schools. Therefore, this study takes 21 cities in Guangdong province as examples, preliminarily constructs strategic coupling variables, and uses regression analysis, geographic detector and other methods to explore the impact of strategic coupling on regional economic resilience in combination with existing research results. This study has three main conclusions: (1) Strategic coupling has a significant impact on regional economic resilience. The dependence of production on foreign capital has the greatest impact, followed by the technological advantage of foreign capital. (2) Due to the differences of cooperation modes in strategic coupling, the influence of capital from Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan of China and other foreign capital on regional economic resilience is different in terms of production dependence and technological leadership of foreign capital. (3) The traditional globalization variables, such as GDP, FDI and total export, are less important in the study of the relationship between strategic coupling and regional economic resilience, because they cannot accurately locate the interaction among the components of global production network. This study quantifies strategic coupling and global production network, further realizes the theoretical dialogue between relational economic geography and evolutionary economic geography, innovates the quantitative measurement method, and provides a reference for further quantification study of strategic coupling and global production network.