青藏高原与印度洋热力对比及其与南亚夏季风的关系

本文基于1979-2017年逐日再分析资料,通过分析对流层中上层青藏高原和印度洋之间的热力差异,提出了一个热力对比指数(TCI),并分析了TCI与南亚夏季风的强度和爆发时间的关系.研究表明:相比单独的青藏高原或者印度洋的温度,TCI能更好地表示南亚夏季风强度的变化.TCI越大时,南亚夏季风爆发时间越早;TCI逐候增量的...

Thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and tropical Indian Ocean and its relationship to the South Asian summer monsoon

The land-sea thermal contrast is an important driver for monsoon interannual variability and the monsoon onset.The thermal contrast between the Tibetan Plateau and the tropical Indian Ocean at the mid-upper troposphere is proposed as a thermal contrast index (TCI) for South Asian monsoon.The authors investigate the TCI associated with South Asian summer monsoon (SASM) intensity and SASM onset.It is observed that the TCI considering the Tibetan Plateau and tropical Indian Ocean demonstrates a stronger and closer correlation with SASM intensity (0.87) than either the Tibetan Plateau (0.42) or tropical Indian Ocean (-0.60) singly.It is implied that the TCI could preferably represent the impact of land-sea thermal condition on SASM activity.Further analysis reveals that the evolution of TCI is related to the SASM onset.The TCI is almost always larger in early onset years than it is in late onset years during the period before SASM onset.In addition,the change of the pentad-by-pentad increment of TCI leads the SASM variation.The correlation coefficient between the TCI increment and SASM index reaches a maximum when the TCI increment leads by 15 pentads.The results of this study show that the TCI plays an important role in SASM activities and is a potential indicator for SASM onset forecasting.