| 贝叶斯分类法在MCS移动路径预测中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭雅芬,过仲阳,苏君毅,戴晓燕.贝叶斯分类法在MCS移动路径预测中的应用[J].地球信息科学,2007,9(2):20-23,42. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭雅芬 过仲阳 苏君毅 戴晓燕 |
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| 作者单位： | 华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062;华东师范大学地理信息科学教育部重点实验室,上海,200062 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金
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教育部重点基金基金
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国家重点实验室基金
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教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金 |
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| 摘 要： | 长江流域上出现的致洪大暴雨与青藏高原上中尺度对流系统(Mesoscale Convective System,简称MCS)的东移密切相关。为了揭示高原上MCS的移动与其周围环境物理量场之间的关系,本文利用1998年6～8月的日本地球静止气象卫星(GMS)探测的逐时红外辐射亮温资料(Tbb),并结合国家气象中心高分辨率有限区域分析预报系统(HLAFS)产品中的数值格点预报值,构建了MCS环境场特征值数据库。据在400hPa和500hPa两个层面上,分别运用朴素贝叶斯分类法对MCS周边环境物理量特征数据集进行训练并预测,结果表明,贝叶斯分类法能有效地运用于预测MCS的移动路径。
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| 关 键 词： | 青藏高原 中尺度对流系统 贝叶斯分类 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-01-02; |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-01-022006-07-02 |
Application of Bayes Classification in Forecasting the Trajectories of MCS |
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| GUO Yafen,GUO Zhongyang,SU Junyi,DAI Xiaoyan.Application of Bayes Classification in Forecasting the Trajectories of MCS[J].Geo-information Science,2007,9(2):20-23,42. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yafen GUO Zhongyang SU Junyi DAI Xiaoyan |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science, East China Normal University, Ministry of Education, Shanghai 200062, China |
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| Abstract: | The relationship between the intensive precipitation caused severe flood in the Yangtze River Basin and the trajectories of Mesoscale Convective System(MCS) over the Tibetan Plateau is close.In order to find the relationship between the trajectories of MCS and the environmental physical field values around MCS,GMS(Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) brightness temperature(Tbb) data and High Resolution Limited Area Analysis and Forecasting System(HLAFS) data from June to August in 1998 are used to build the database of MCS environmental physical field feature values.Based on these,Bayes Classification is applied to train and predict the dataset of MCS environmental physical field feature values at the levels of 400hPa and 500hPa,respectively.Consequently,it is proven that Bayes Classification is effective to predict the trajectories of MCS. |
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| Keywords: | Tibetan Plateau mesoscale convective system Bayes classification |
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