江苏省近百年汛期旱涝变化的诊断分析

本文应用历史气候资料和现代降水记录，对近百年来汛期江苏省各区域各年代进行旱涝诊断分析，采用滑动平均方法探讨其变化趋势，并用最大搞谱方法提取显著周期。得出以下三个比较有意义的结论：（1）近百年来，汛期全省较易发生旱的灾害，20－30年代为旱灾濒发期；（2）淮北地区近年有向早年发展的趋势，江淮之间及苏南地区进入90年代以来向旱年发展的趋势则愈来愈明显；（3）全省具有2－3年、5－6年的旱涝周期。

ANALYSIS IN THE DIAGNOSIS OF THE CHANGE OF DROUGHTS AND FLOODS DURING THE FLOOD SEASON IN THIS CENTURY IN JIANGSU PROVINCE

The past climate data and modern precipitation records are used to diagnoseand analyze whether it is dry or waterlogged in per area and per time during the flood seasonin this century in Jiangsu province' Variations and trend are disscussed through the movingmean,maximum entropy spectral estimation are also applied in order to obtain some notableoscillating cycles. The following three significant conclusions have been obtained:(1)Drought occurred frequently during the flood season in this century specially from1920s to 1930s in Jiangsu province;(2)There is a tendency towards drought recently in the north of the Huaihe river,thistendency has become more and more obvious since 1990s in the area between the Huaihe riverand the Changjiang river and the area in the south of Jiangsu province;(3)There is a drouglit nyfluod period about two to three and five to six years.