The natural latitudinal distribution of atmospheric CO2

Although poorly understood, the north–south distribution of the natural component of atmospheric CO₂ offers information essential to improving our understanding of the exchange of CO₂ between the atmosphere, oceans, and biosphere. The natural or unperturbed component is equivalent to that part of the atmospheric CO₂ distribution which is controlled by non-anthropogenic CO₂ fluxes from the ocean and terrestrial biosphere. Models should be able to reproduce the true north–south gradient in CO₂ due to the natural component before they can reliably estimate present-day CO₂ sources and sinks and predict future atmospheric CO₂. We have estimated the natural latitudinal distribution of atmospheric CO₂, relative to the South Pole, using measurements of atmospheric CO₂ during 1959–1991 and corresponding estimates of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions to the atmosphere. Key features of the natural latitudinal distribution include: (1) CO₂ concentrations in the northern hemisphere that are lower than those in the southern hemisphere; (2) CO₂ concentration differences that are higher in the tropics (associated with outgassing of the oceans) than those currently measured; and (3) CO₂ concentrations over the southern ocean that are relatively uniform. This natural latitudinal distribution and its sensitivity to increasing fossil fuel emissions both indicate that near-surface concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ in the northern hemisphere are naturally lower than those in the southern hemisphere. Models that find the contrary will also mismatch present-day CO₂ in the northern hemisphere and incorrectly ascribe that region as a large sink of anthropogenic CO₂.