The case for human causes of increased atmospheric CH4 over the last 5000 years

We propose that humans significantly altered atmospheric CH₄ levels after 5000 years BP and that anthropogenic inputs just prior to the industrial revolution accounted for up to 25% of the CH₄ level of 725 ppb (parts per billion). We base this hypothesis on three arguments: (1) the 100 ppb increase in atmospheric CH₄ that occurred after 5000 years BP follows a pattern unprecedented in any prior orbitally driven change in the ice-core record; (2) non-anthropogenic explanations for this increase (expansion of boreal peat lands or tropical wetlands) are inconsistent with existing evidence; and (3) inefficient early rice farming is a quantitatively plausible means of producing anomalously large CH₄ inputs to the atmosphere prior to the industrial revolution. If the areas flooded for farming harbored abundant CH₄-producing weeds, disproportionately large amounts of CH₄ would have been produced in feeding relatively small pre-industrial populations.