长江河口拦门沙地形变化的统计预报

根据1975－1985年长江河口拦门沙地形、长江河口河流和海洋水文泥沙等11年的实测资料，应用经验特征函数分析和现代控制理论方法对长江河口拦门沙地形变化进行系统辨识和预报。结果表明，长江河口拦门沙地形变化可以表述为三输入-三输出的CARMA一阶模型，根据这些模型对长江河口拦门沙地形变化进行预报，取得了与实测资料较一致的预报结果。

PREDICTION OF TOPOGRAPHY CHANGES IN CHANGJIANG RIVER-ESTUARY BAR

The topography changes of the Changjiang River-Estuary Bar are treated as a dynamic system and predicted by the techniques of controlled autoregressive moving average (CARMA) model and empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) analysis. A tbree month interval 1975 to 1985 data set on the bar topography, river discharge and suspended sediment concentration from Datong Station and tide height at Gao-qiao Station constituted the multiple time series of this study. Based on the selec-tion of input and output variables, multiple input and multiple output (MlMO)CARMA models(1) for the system were identified, obtained, and validated, and used for multistep prediction of topography changes in the Cliangjiang River-Estu-ary Bar, with model results on good agreement, with observations.