海冰模式和数值预报

根据渤海冰情，在海冰动力学和热力学研究基础上，提出一种海冰动力一热力模式。该模式包括平整冰、堆积冰和开阔水三要素，采用粘一塑性本构关系计算冰内应力。利用参数化方法处理变形函数和热力增长率。该冰模式与潮流模式耦合研究渤海冰－潮相互作用，并与ＥＣＯＭ－Ｓｉ海洋模式耦合进行预报试验。该冰模式与大气模式联接，或应用气象部门数值天气预报产品进行海冰业务数值预报。本文还给出了预报结果。

SEA ICE MODEL AND NUMERICAL FORECASTING

A dynamic-thermodynamic ice model with three levels, level ice, rubble and open water, for the Bobal Sea is presented on the basis of ice conditions in the Bobal Sea and study on dynamics and thermodynamics of sea ice. The viscous-plastic constitutive law is used for calculating internal ice stress and the deformation functions and thermodynamic growth rates are estimated by using parameterization schemes in the model. The ice model has been coupled with a tidal current model for studying ice-tide interaction for the Bobal Sea and coupled with ECOM-si model for forecasting.test. An atmospheric model is linked to the ice model and outputs of numerical weather prediction from the meteorologic institutions are used for operational numerical sea ice forecasts for the Bobal Sea. The forecasting results are shown in the paper.