| 基于Logistic回归及前期有效雨量的降雨诱发型滑坡预测方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李铁锋,丛威青. 基于Logistic回归及前期有效雨量的降雨诱发型滑坡预测方法[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2006, 17(1): 33-35 |
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| 作者姓名： | 李铁锋 丛威青 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 中国地质环境监测院,北京,100081
2. 北京大学地球与空间科学学院,北京,100871 |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡预测预报一直是国内外滑坡灾害研究的重点。且多数滑坡均属降雨诱发型。为此将降雨诱发型滑坡的研究列为重中之重。但是,降雨与滑坡发生的关系不仅密切,而且非常复杂。除降雨外,还涉及到地质、气象、水文、土壤等多个学科。因此,至今尚未总结出一种对降雨诱发型滑坡进行定量预测预报的成熟方法。文章将Logistic回归模型与前期有效降雨量结合,形成一套对降雨诱发型滑坡进行定量预测预报的方法。并以长江三峡地区为例进行了检验,效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 降雨 Logistic回归模型 前期有效降雨量 滑坡预测 长江三峡地区 |
| 文章编号： | 1003-8035（2006）01-0033-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-09-21 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-09-24 |
A method for rainfall-induced landslides prediction based on Logistic regression and effective antecedent rainfall |
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| LI Tie-feng,CONG Wei-qing. A method for rainfall-induced landslides prediction based on Logistic regression and effective antecedent rainfall[J]. The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control, 2006, 17(1): 33-35 |
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| Authors: | LI Tie-feng CONG Wei-qing |
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| Affiliation: | 1. China Institute of Geo-environmental Monitoring, Beijing 100081, China; 2. School of Earth and Space Sciences, Peking University, Beijing 10871, China |
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| Abstract: | Landslide prediction is always the emphasis of landslide research.As most landslides is induced by rainfall,the research on rainfall-induced landslides is much more important than others.But the relationship between rainfall and landslide is very complex.It involves many different subjects such as geology,meteorology,hydrology,agrology etc..So there haven no commonly accepted method for rainfall-induced landslide prediction.In this paper, a quantitative method based on Logistic regression and effective antecedent rainfall is proposed.Application of this mechod shows it is effective. |
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| Keywords: | rainfall Logistic regression model effective antecedent rainfall landslide prediction the Three Gorges area |
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