由GPS资料讨论中国大陆块体运动与应变模型的建立及检验

目前很多文献基于弹性力学假设，以小形变、均匀应变场为前提，利用GPS资料建立了中国大陆块体的整体旋转与均匀应变模型，并对模型进行了相关检验.但上述对模型的检验侧重从模型的拟合效果上进行分析和比较，忽略了对模型的适用性和假设条件合理性的检验.实际上，不同块体由于自身构造和外部条件的不同，其运动状况与应变状态并不完全一致，模型的适用性需进一步的验证.本文提出了两步检验方法对所建立的模型在中国大陆6个主要块体上进行了检验：第一步对应变参数进行显著性检验，第二步对应变均匀性进行检验，结果表明：根据所用数据精度，华南块体的刚性程度在95% 的置信水平上可以认为显著的，建立模型时不必考虑内部形变；其他块体内部形变显著，整体旋转与均匀应变模型并不能反映真实的地壳运动状态，必须考虑其形变的不均匀性.

The foundation of China mainland blocks movement and strain model and its test based on the GPS data

At present, the model of block rotation and homogeneous strain based on the hypotheses of elastic mechanics, small deformation, and homogeneous strain fields has been established in many literatures using GPS data, some tests also have been carried though at the same time. However, these tests focus on the fitting effect and neglect the testing of model′s applicability and the rationality of the hypothesis. In fact, for different blocks, their movement status and strain status are different because of the interior structure and external condition, so the model′s applicability should be analyzed. This paper puts forward a two-step testing on six blocks of China mainland: first, testing of significance of parameters; second, testing of homogeneity of strain. The results indicate that on the precision of given data the South China block can be considered as rigid at a 95% confidence level and its deformation can be ignored; the others′ deformations are so significant that the model does not fit them and the inhomogeneous interior deformation must be taken into consideration.