徐州地区层状云火箭人工增雨潜势区判别

为了提高人工增雨作业的作业水平和增雨效率,利用2010—2012年徐州市人工增雨作业中的多种观测资料,在分析徐州地区地形特征、增雨作业习惯的基础上,研究出适合本地区使用的人工增雨效果检验方法,建立人工增雨潜势分析模型,对未来12h的人工增雨潜势和临近增雨潜势进行逐步分级判断,将增雨潜势区分为两级:级别Ⅰ增雨潜势较小和级别Ⅱ增雨潜势较大,并指导人工增雨作业。2013年徐州人工增雨作业实践表明,人工增雨12h潜势预报模型和临近预报模型具有较高的准确率。以增雨潜势预报模型为基础,修改徐州地区人工增雨作业流程,提高指挥人员的工作效率,并提高人工增雨作业的效率。

Stepwise Discrimination Analysis of Rain Enhancement Potential in Stratiform Clouds in Xuzhou

In order to improve the level and efficiency, based on a variety of observation data in Xuzhou from 2010 to 2012, by means of a new effectiveness evaluation method for rainfall enhancement operations, considering the topographic features and working habits of Xuzhou, the rainfall enhancement potential analysis models for 12 hour forecast and nowcasting are established. The potential areas are classified into two categories： Class Ⅰ （smaller） and class Ⅱ （larger）, and rainfall enhancement operation advices are provided by the two categories. Results of rainfall operations in Xuzhou in 2013 show that the rainfall enhancement potential analysis models for 12 hour forecasting and nowcasting have a satisfactory accuracy. Based on the models, the operation procedures of rainfall enhancement Xuzhou are revised to improve the efficiency of the command staff and the effectiveness of rainfall enhancement operations.