全球增暖下我国旱涝灾害可能情景的初步研究

在全球变暖的情况下,我国东南沿海、西南、西北、内蒙古和东北部分地区,洪涝灾害可能增加;而黄河中游以南和华北平原干旱可能增加.这一变化特征与本世纪暖期降水分布变化,以及与CO_2倍增情况下气候模似结果基本一致.

THE PRELIMINARY STUDY ON POSSIBLE SCENARIOSOF FLOOD AND DROUGHT IN CHINA IN THECASE OF GLOBAL WARMING

According to Prof. Zhu Kezhen's (Chu. K. C) historical climatic division, the last 500 years in China can be divided into several alternately cold and warm periods. The periods of 1470-1520, 1620-1720,1840-1890 had cold winters, while those of 1550 - 1600,1770-1830 had warm winters. Based on such a division, in four kinds of periods, i. e cold, warm, cold-warm and warm-cold (transition period), the differences between flood/drought degree in 120 stations in China and the average of flood/drought degree in the last 500 years have been calculated. Positive anomaly indicates drought-prone area, while negative anomaly indicates flood- prone area. This historical experience provides a background to analyze the possible scenarios in the case of global warming in the future. The final results suggest that in the case of global warming the disaster of flood probably increase in many parts of China, such as southeast coastal area, the southwest, northwest, some parts of northeast and Inner Mongolia while the disaster of drought probably decrease in the North China Plain, the middle reaches of the Huanghe River and its southern adjacent area. This distribution resembles that of precipitation in warming period in this centruy and that resulted from climatic model in the case of Co2 doubling.