Uncertainty analysis on zonation maps of debris flow hazard in Yunnan Province, China |
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Authors: | Xi-lin Liu |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, 100871 Beijing, P. R. China;(2) Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, 610041 Chengdu, P. R. China |
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Abstract: | Different researchers select different factors and use different methods to assess the regional hazard degrees of debris flow.
Consequently, even for the same region, there are often different hazard zonation maps, and there must be some uncertainty
in the zonations. Thus the certainty analysis of zonation maps becomes obviously important. For debris flow hazard, those
zonation maps with a certainty analysis could provide most valuable information for land users, hazard managers and policy
makers. By comparison of three researchers’ findings in Yunnan Province, this paper shows that seven to nine influential factors
are chosen for the zonation maps. Spatial density of debris flow ravines, regional average rock-weathering coefficient, yearly
precipitation, days of ≥ 50 mm daily rainfall, and proportion of sloping land with slope ≥ 25° to the total land are the most
acceptable factors. Mathematical methods of maximum-minimum values, upper-lower limit values and Fuzzy values are used to
quantify the factors. Step-by-step methodology is commonly used for the zonation maps. Research results show that maximum
uncertainty is 66.6% and minimum uncertainty is 35.7% in debris flow hazard maps of Zhaotong Prefecture and Yunnan Province.
Therefore there is still much work for us to improve the zonation methodology.
Foundation item: Supported by the Education Bureau of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.
Biography: LIU Xi-lin (1963–), male, a native of Hunan Province, is a research professor. His research interests include debris
flow assessment and geomorphology. |
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Keywords: | debris flow hazard zonation uncertainty zonation map |
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