Hydrodynamic Response of Northeastern Gulf of Mexico to Hurricanes

The northeastern Gulf of Mexico in the USA is extremely susceptible to the impacts of tropical cyclones because of its unique geometric and topographic features. Focusing on Hurricanes Ivan (2004) and Katrina (2005), this paper has addressed four scientific questions on this area’s response to hurricanes: (1) How does the shallow, abandoned Mississippi delta contribute to the storm surge? (2) What was the controlling factor that caused the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina? (3) Why are the responses of an estuary to Hurricanes Ivan and Katrina so different from the corresponding surges on the open coast? (4) How would the storm surge differ if Hurricane Katrina had taken a different course? Guided by field observations of winds, waves, water levels, and currents, two state-of-the-art numerical models for storm surges and wind waves have been coupled to hindcast the relevant hydrodynamic conditions, including storm surges, surface waves, and depth-averaged currents. Fairly good agreement between the modeled and measured surge hydrographs was found. The quantitative numerical simulations and simple qualitative analysis have revealed that the record-high storm surge of Hurricane Katrina was caused by the interaction of the surge with the extremely shallow, ancient deltaic lobe of Mississippi River. A hypothetical scenario formed by shifting the path of Hurricane Katrina to the observed path of Hurricane Frederic (1979) resulted in a much smaller surge than that observed in coastal Mississippi and Louisiana. However, this scenario did still result in a high surge near the head of Mobile Bay. One of the important lessons learned from Hurricane Katrina is that the Saffir–Simpson scale should be systematically revised to reflect the topographic and geometric features of a complex, heterogeneous coast, including the possible surge amplification in an estuary or a submerged river delta.