地质灾害区域预警原理与显式预警系统设计研究

通过总结分析国内外经验和新认识,文章把地质灾害区域预警原理初步划分为隐式统计预警、显式统计预警和动力预警三种类型.隐式统计预警是把地质环境因素的作用隐含在降雨参数中,仅仅考虑降雨参数建立模型的方法.显式统计预警是一种把地质环境因素变化与激发因素相迭加耦合而后建立判据模型的预警方法.动力预警是一种考虑地质体在降雨过程中自身动力变化过程而建立数学物理判据方程的方法,实质上是一种解析预警方法.本文以系统工程思想为指导,比较全面地架构了显式统计预警系统的设计方法,包括需求分析、问题表述、目标设定、设计原则、图层设计、系统建模、系统运算、预警等级确定、产品生成、产品会商、产品发布、预警校验、预警决策、应急行动、成本收益分析和系统完善升级等内容.这项设计研究为具体研发设计某个地区的预警系统提供了思想平台,为建立国家、省和市(县)分层级联动的地质灾害区域预警体系提供了技术路线.

Early warning theory for regional geo-hazards and design of explicit statistical system

Since 2003,national early warning for regional geo-hazards has been continuously done based on weather condition in China.With four years research and application,there have been some obvious results in disaster prevention and reduction.Based on inland and overseas experience,early warning methods for regional geo-hazards are divided into three types: implicit statistics,explicit statistics,and dynamic method.In the method of implicit statistics,the effect of geo-environment factors is implied in rainfall criterion,that is,there is only rainfall parameter in early warning model of different areas.However,in the method of explicit statistics,geo-environment and induced factors are coupled to set up early warning model.The dynamic method is one that the dynamic process of slope during rainfall is analyzed to find early warning criterion,which is an analytical method virtually.With the system engineering theory,design method of explicit statistics early warning system is set up entirely,which includes some contents as following: requirement analysis,problem expression,aim designing,principle of design,map factor design,system model,system compute,early warning grade,early warning product building,product discussion,product issuance,early warning check,early warning discussion,contingency operation,cost-benefit analysis,and system upgrade,etc.The design of this method sets up a public idea platform for some area early warning system,and can act as the theory basis of a regional geo-hazard early warning system,including national,provincial and county levels based on weather factors in different scale of area.