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| 北部湾乌雷站台风浪、风暴增水数值结果的联合概率分析 | |
| 引用本文： | 李淑君,沙文钰,齐义泉.北部湾乌雷站台风浪、风暴增水数值结果的联合概率分析[J].海洋通报,2006,25(4):23-28. |
| 作者姓名： | 李淑君 沙文钰 齐义泉 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 南海舰队海洋水文气象中心,广东,湛江,524001 2. 解放军理工大学气象学院,江苏,南京,211101 3. 中国科学院南海海洋研究所,广东,广州,510301 |
| 摘 要： | 对1949?2002年北部湾乌雷站台风浪和风暴增水的数值模拟结果进行分析,得出54a的台风浪和风暴增水的极值序列,作出二者联合概率分布图,其分布近似于指数分布,进而运用GUMBELⅡ联合概率分布函数对其拟合,在找出联合概率分布函数过程中分析得出了台风浪和风暴增水不同重现期的单要素极值和联合分布要素极值及相应概率(具体给出),其结果对海洋工程设计有一定的参考价值。 |
| 关 键 词： | 北部湾 乌雷站 台风浪 风暴增水 联合概率 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-6392（2006）04-0023-06 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-06-14 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-06-142005-10-21 |
Joint Probability Analysis of Numerical Simulation Results of Typhoon Wave and Storm Surge of the Wulei Station at the Beibu Bay |
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| LI Shujun,SHA Wenyu,QI Yiquan.Joint Probability Analysis of Numerical Simulation Results of Typhoon Wave and Storm Surge of the Wulei Station at the Beibu Bay[J].Marine Science Bulletin,2006,25(4):23-28. | |
| Authors: | LI Shujun SHA Wenyu QI Yiquan |
| Institution: | 1. Naval Oceanographic Hydrometerological Centre of South China Sea Fleet, Zhanjiang 524001, Guangdong, China; 2. Institute of Meteorology, PLA University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 211101, Jiangsu, China; 3. South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510301, Guangdong, China |
| Abstract: | In this paper, by employing the numerical simulation results of typhoon wave and storm surge from 1949 to 2002 of the Wulei station at the Beibu Bay, their extreme-values of time series of 54 years were obtained. We found that the distribution of joint probability between the extreme-values of typhoon wave and storm surge is an exponential distribution, then we use GUMBEL II joint probability function to fit to it. During finding out the function, we got extreme-values of typhoon wave, storm surge, their extreme-values of joint probability distribution of different recurrence periods and corresponding probabilities, respectively. The result was perfect, and of some reference value to marine engineering design. |
| Keywords: | Beibu Bay Wulei station typhoon wave storm surge joint probability |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 万方数据 等数据库收录！ | |