Non-linear modelling of monthly mean vorticity time changes: an application to the western Mediterranean |
| |
Authors: | M. Finizio S. Palmieri |
| |
Affiliation: | (1) Dep. of Physics, University of Rome –La Sapienza, Piazzale A. Moro 2, I-00185 Rome, Italy |
| |
Abstract: | Starting from a number of observables in the form of time-series of meteorological elements in various areas of the northern hemisphere, a model capable of fitting past records and predicting monthly vorticity time changes in the western Mediterranean is implemented. A new powerful statistical methodology is introduced (MARS) in order to capture the non-linear dynamics of time-series representing the available 40-year history of the hemispheric circulation. The developed model is tested on a suitable independent data set. An ensemble forecast exercise is also carried out to check model stability in reference to the uncertainty of input quantities. |
| |
Keywords: | Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics General circulation ocean-atmosphere interactions Synoptic-scale meteorology |
本文献已被 SpringerLink 等数据库收录! |