天气预报评分方法评述

本文按定性预报、百分率预报和形态预报3类预报形式，分别概述了常用的验证评分方法。提出了预报评分方法应遵循的7条准则，并以此为依据，针对强对流天气等小概率事件的预报，讨论了各种评分方法的适用性。最后，对各类预报形式的验证评分，提出了最佳的方案。

RCVIEW OF WEATHER PREDICTION VERIFYING TECHNIQUES

Usual verification techniques are outlined for categorical,probability and patternforecasts with seven criteria proposed for the verifications. Accordingly,the applicability of eachof the three metheds is addressed with reference to small-probability events like severe convectiveweather. Finallv,an optimal scheme is developed for each of the techniques.