基于ESDA方法与空间计量模型的旅游影响因素分析

通过探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）发现，中国省域之间的旅游发展存在明显的空间自相关性，在空间分布上呈现聚集状态。进一步建立空间计量经济学模型进行实证研究，空间滞后模型的极大似然估计结果表明，旅游总收入模型和国内收入模型的参数ρ显著为正，说明邻近区域之间旅游收入空间联系十分密切，且国内旅游的溢出效应大于总体旅游的溢出效应。经济发展水平是总体旅游、国内旅游和入境旅游发展的重要影响因素。旅游上层设施、人力资源、旅游基础设施在统计上十分显著，是总体旅游和国内旅游发展的重要影响因素。入境旅游模型则整体拟合较差。

Influencing Factors of Tourism Based on ESDA Method and Spatial Econometrics

Exploratory spatial data analysis shows that there exists spatial autocorrelation of tourism among the provinces of China, where the tourism distribution presents a condition of obvious spatial cluster. A spatial econometric model is used to conduct an empirical study. The results of spatial lag model via likelihood estimation demonstrates that the parameter ρ is statistically significant both in total and domestic tourism revenue, that means that there is close correlation among the tourism revenues of the neighbouring provinces, and the spillover effect of domestic tourism revenue is greater than that of the total. Economic development level is the most important factor affecting the total, domestic and foreign tourism, and upper class tourism facilities, human resources, and tourism infrastructure are important factors affecting total and domestic tourism development. But inbound tourism model doesn’t fit well.