Statistical analysis of the largest possible earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast for selected return periods |
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| Authors: | Sandra García-Bustos Jimmy Landín Ricardo Moreno ASE Chong Maurizio Mulas Mónica Mite |
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| Institution: | 1. Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Guayaquil, Ecuadorslgarcia@espol.edu.ec;3. Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Centro de Estudios e Investigaciones Estadísticas-Facultad de Ciencias Naturales y Matemáticas, Guayaquil, Ecuador;4. Escuela Superior Politécnica del Litoral, ESPOL, Facultad de Ingeniería en Ciencias de la Tierra, Guayaquil, Ecuador;5. Universidad de Guayaquil, Facultad de Matemáticas, Ciudadela Universitaria, Guayaquil, Ecuador |
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| Abstract: | ABSTRACTIn this work, we have studied the largest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast by using the principles of Extreme Value Analysis based on its two approaches: Block Maxima and Peaks-over-Threshold. First, before modelling the recorded earthquakes, the K-means clustering technique was applied to determine a classification according to the level of magnitude of the earthquakes. Then, models based on the Extreme Value theory of earthquake magnitudes were developed for each of the four clusters that were found, and finally, the best-fitted models were those known as Fréchet and Gumbel ones. The zone with the greatest earthquake magnitudes on the Ecuadorian coast is located between the north of the province of Manabí and the south of the province of Esmeraldas, with a return period of 50 years for an earthquake with magnitude greater than 7.7 MW. |
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| Keywords: | Seismic recurrence time extreme values Ecuadorian coast peaks-over-threshold block maxima |
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