大地震发生的网络性质——兼论有关地震预测的争论

现有地震形成机制的假说大多是仅考虑震源及其邻近地区的事实依据。文中提出 :大地震的形成机制具有网络特性 ,把大地震看成是多层次网络的节点。一个地震的发生是多种动力 (包括天文因素 )作用的结果。地震形成机制的网络假说能较好地综合已有概念 ,解释地震预测研究中发现许多新现象。从网络假说看近年来“地震能否预测”的争论可有许多新启示。如果应用网络假说 ,至少一部分地震应是可以预测的。

THE NETWORK FEATURES OF LARGE EARTHQUAKE OCCURRENCE AND SOME WORDS ON THE DEBATE OF EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

Most of established hypotheses on the formation mechanism of large earthquakes are based on the facts occurred near the epicenter area. The author suggests that the formation mechanism of large earthquakes is characterized by network features. Large earthquakes are considered as nodes of multi level networks. The occurrence of a large earthquake is related to various dynamic ( including astronomical ) factors. This network hypothesis of large earthquake formation can easily integrate most of known phenomena discovered during earthquake prediction.Moreover, it provides new enlightenment to the debate upon the question:“Can earthquakes be predicted?” If the network hypothesis is accepted, the answer could be: at least part of large earthquakes can be predicted.