湖北大涝气候特征及其趋势预测方法研究

利用1951～1994年月平均海温资料，根据滞后相关寻找海温与湖北大涝相关的时段，在对各时段综合分析的基础上，找出与湖北大涝关系密切的关键区内海温格点值之和作为因子，按不同时段，利用统计方法建立湖北大涝的预报曲线，预报曲线的高值时段湖北易发生大涝。该方法经8年应用效果良好，对1996年、1998年两次大涝提供了正确的趋势预报。

Methods for Predicting Severe Flood Climatic Trends in Hubei Province

Utilizing monthly average sea surface temperature (SST) data from 1951 to 1994, the correlative periods of SST and severe floods in Hubei Province were identified through lag correlation analysis. The sums of SST at the grid points in key areas were used as forecasting factors intimately associated with the severe floods in Hubei Province. The prediction curves of severe floods for different time periods were built up by using statistic methods. The method worked well in the past eight years in operational application, especially in 1996 and 1998 provided correct trend predictions of floods.