一个关于临界地城的临界区域判别的方法

由临界地震的概念和外推Ｂｏｗｍａｎ等人关于孕育未来的地震半径的思想，发展出一个临界圆重叠方法来地寻找未来强震的临界区域位置，模拟实验的对比检验表明这种方法是有效的，使用主震前一定时间内地震目录，这个方法能找出临界区域，而未来震中位置将位于临界区域内或其边缘。使用新西兰和中国新疆南部的中强震目录检验，该方法可以在震前较准确地定位出强城的临界区域位置，使用中国１９９５年至１９９９年８月的小震目录，给出

A method for locating the critical region of a future earthquake using the critical earthquake concept

Using the critical point concept, and extending Bowman's idea on critical earthquake, we develop an intersecting circle method to locate critical region. A simulation check shows that this method is effective in finding a given critical region. We selected several real cases from New Zealand and China, and used this method to find the critical regions before the occurrence of large earthquakes. The result shows that this method is valid to detect a critical region and the epicenter of mainshock might be in the critical region. We tried this method to find the critical regions of China with the data between January 1st, 1995 and August 31st, 1999. The result shows that nearly all of those earthquakes with M (5.0 occurred in China (except the Tibetan region) between August 31st, 1999 and June 16th, 2000 are situated in the critical regions.