中国大陆地区强震活动特征统计

从时空展布和应变积累释放角度,对中国大陆及大陆西部和东部地区地震活动进行分析,认为青藏高原地震区是中国大陆强震活动主体区域,在目前空间格局不发生改变的情况下,巴颜喀拉地块区及边界、川滇地区是强震活动主要场所的可能性较大;其次为新疆地震区,其强震主体区域依次为南天山与西昆仑交汇区、阿尔泰地区、南北天山地区;中国大陆东部目前可能处于第2轮回后剩余释放阶段或可能已进入第3个轮回的应变积累阶段,总体应变积累水平较低,发生强地震的可能性较小,若进入活跃期,华北地震区应是M≥6.0地震活动的主体区域。

Statistics of strong earthquake activity in mainland China

From the perspective of time and space distribution and strain accumulation release of mainland China, earthquake activities of western and eastern China are analyzed in this article. It is found that earthquake zone of the Qinghai-Tibet plateau is the main body of China earthquake activity area. In the assume that the present spatial patterns do not change, Bayan Har terrain and its boundary, Sichuan-Yunnan region are the main earthquake activity places of high possibility; followed by the seismic regions in Xinjiang, the main areas of strong earthquake are the junction of south Tianshan and west Kunlun mountains, Altay region, north and south Tianshan region, in turn; Eastern China may now be at the stage of residual release after the second cycle or has entered the stage of strain accumulation in the third cycle. The overall strain accumulation is in lower level. The possibility of occurrence of a strong earthquake is little. But as gonging into active phase, north China earthquake zone should be the main seismic activity area of M ≥ 6.