中国人口分布的土地资源限制性和限制度研究

以人口分布的土地资源限制性评价为核心,建立土地资源限制性与限制度模型,从全国、分省、分县等三个不同尺度,全面评估近10年中国人口分布的土地资源限制度及其时空耦合规律,定量揭示中国人口分布的土地资源限制程度及其空间格局与变化规律。结果表明：① 1949年以来中国的土地资源承载力趋于增强; 2010年与2000年相比,人口分布的土地资源限制度由42.87下降到34.50,土地资源限制度在降低。② 分省的人粮关系趋于好转,大多省份人口分布的土地资源限制度处于较低水平; 2010年与2000年相比,分省人口分布的土地资源限制度整体呈降低趋势。③ 2000-2010年分县粮食盈余地区在增加,人口超载地区在减少,人粮关系趋于改善; 2010年和2000年相比,基本不受土地资源限制的分县单元由60.27%增至70.63%,基于人口分布的土地资源限制度整体较低,且近10年呈降低趋势;土地资源限制度整体上东部强于西部、南部强于北部、泛黄河流域强于长江流域。

Research on land resources restriction on population distribution in China, 2000-2010

Population, resources, environment and development are the most important global issues the world is facing today. With population surge, the consequents such as shortage of resources, environmental pollution and other issues are increasingly attracting attention. As an important theme of regional sustainable development, the relationship between population distribution and resources, environment, and socio-economic development has attracted much attention for a long time. The resources restriction on population distribution becomes more significant for population growth in China, especially the land resources. This paper established a series of index system and models for evaluating land resources restriction on population distribution. The spatial-temporal features of land resources restriction on population distribution in China were assessed comprehensively in recent ten years at national, provincial and county scales. The limited degree, spatial pattern and changing law of land resources restriction on population pattern were also revealed quantitatively. The results showed that: (1) At the national level, the carrying capacity of land resources has been enhanced since 1949. The limited degree of land resources on population distribution in China declined during 2000-2010, down to 34.50 from 42.87. (2) At the provincial level, the relationship between population and grain production in China was improved from 2000 to 2010. The land resources restriction on population distribution had significant differences on provincial scale, and most of provinces were in low level. The restriction degree of land resources on population distribution overall showed a downward trend at the provincial level during 2000-2010. (3) At the county level, the relationship between population and grain production tended to be harmonious from 2000 to 2010. About 60% and 70% of the counties in China were not affected by land resources restriction respectively in 2000 and 2010. The restriction degree of land resources on population distribution was overall in low level at the county level and showed a downward trend in recent ten years. The basic spatial pattern of land resources restriction on population distribution showed that the eastern region surpassed the western region, that the southern region was superior to the northern region, and Yellow River Basin was higher than Yangtze River Basin.