塔里木河流域农牧系统耦合协调度分析

种植业(农业系统中的小农业)和畜牧业是农业系统中的两大主要组成部分,其协调发展有利于现代农业的实现。塔里木河流域是新疆重要的农业生产区域,农牧耦合协调发展将有利于推动流域现代农业的进程,增加农牧民收入。在统计学"变异性系数"的基础之上对其进行改良,构建了塔里木河流域农牧系统的耦合度和耦合协调度模型,以2003-2014年的统计数据为基础,定量分析了流域农牧系统耦合度和协调度,得出以下结论:流域传统农业特征显著;流域农牧协调发展存在一定的难度;流域农牧耦合只是简单的初级耦合,农牧高级耦合发展后劲还不足;政策因素对流域农牧耦合影响较大。

Analysis on Coupling Coordination Degree Between Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Systems in Tarim River Basin

Planting(small agriculture in farming systems)and animal husbandry are two main parts in agricultural systems and the coordinated development between them is propitious to realize modern agriculture. Tarim River Basin is an important agricultural producing area in Xinjiang, and the coordinated development of planting and animal husbandry will help promote the process of agricultural modernization and increase the farmers'income there. Firstly, the paper selected 16 evaluation indicators from the three aspects of ecological, social and economic resources to determine the evaluation index system of coupling level of agriculture and animal husbandry of the Tarim River Basin. Secondly, it improved "Variation Coefficient" of statistics and establishes the model of the coupling and the coupling coordination degrees of agriculture and animal husbandry of the Tarim River Basin. Finally, based on a continuous distribution function to specify evaluation standards and types, and employing the statistical data from 2003 to 2014, the paper quantitatively analyzed the coupling degree, coordination degree of planting and livestock systems, and the types of agriculture and animal husbandry of the Tarim River Basin. The findings indicate there is a high degree of coupling agriculture and animal husbandry of Tarim River Basin, but the degree of coupling is developing and changing, and there exists a larger difference in the coupling coordination types in different years. On the basis of the analysis, the conclusions could be drawn as follows:traditional agricultural characteristics are very significant in the region; there exists certain difficulties in the coordinated development of the plant and livestock's coupling; the coupling is still at simple and primary stage and the potential of advanced coupling development is insufficient; policies have great influence on the coupling between agriculture and animal husbandry in Tarim River Basin. The paper established a model to simulate the trajectory of the change and development of agriculture and animal husbandry as well as the coupling coordination degree between them in Tarim River Basin, which has certain guiding significance to understand and grasp the status of watershed development of agriculture and animal husbandry, and even to promote the relationship between agriculture and animal husbandry.