京-津-唐地区自然灾害系统的特点和发展趋势预测

本文在对大量实际资料分析研究的基础上,总结出京—津—唐地区自然灾害系统的特点。文中指出该区自然灾害分布受控于自然环境系统,而构造体系的存在及其发展又是自然环境系统形成与变异的主导因素,该区存在3种主要构造体系。根据自然灾害分布和特点,本文将京—津—唐地区划分为3个灾害区,并简述了各灾害区的特点。文中分析了地球各圈层韵律变化的特点及在本区的表现,论述了发生于本区各种自然灾害的周期性。本文还论述了自然灾害系统的形成与地球运动及太阳系活动的关系。最后,作者对该区自然灾害发展趋势提出了预测意见。

CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NATURAL HAZARD SYSTEM AND FORECAST OF ITS TREND OF DEVELOPMENT IN THE BEIJING TIANJIN-TANGSHAN AREA

The Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area is a politic, cultural and economic center of China. To study the law of natural hazards in this area, forecast their development trend and make corresponding countermeasures is of great significance for protecting lifes and properties of the Party Central Committee and people and sustained development in economy of the aera.According to the study results, the following points can be summerized:1. Natural hazards are not isolated phenomena. They are associated with each other to form a unified system. Various natural hazards that have taken place in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area are a part of this system.The occurrence of the natural hazard system is closely related to variations of natural environments, synchronic movements and mutual influences of various earth's spheres and movements of the whole earth and activities of celestial bodies.2. A laege amount of data indicate that from the end of the 20th century to the beginning of the 21st century natural hazards will freqently occur in the Beijin-Tiaujin-Tangshan area.3. Natural hazards are liable to lake place in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, on account of its specialtectonic position and natural environment. Especially, Beijing and Tianjin municipalities and their surroundings will be faced with threats of regional disasters and those characteristic of a city.4. As the natural hazards are measured using different scaJes a.nd their genetic mechanisms are complex, the knowledges obtained need to be analyzed in a concret way rather than disccused in generlities.