Distribution of extreme characteristics of atmospheric circulation from reanalysis data and hydrodynamic modeling

On the basis of reanalysis data and hydrodynamic modeling the spatial-temporal features of Wallace-Gutzler circulation indices, calculated at daily intervals, are studied. The circulation index extremes are interpreted as “weather regimes” with the alteration closely related to the low frequency variability of the atmospere. The outliers and extreme values are studied using nonparametric statistics and exploratory techniques. On the basis of the experiments performed assessments of the potential predictability of the outlier and extreme value characteristics for the summer and winter seasons are given.