Landslide susceptibility mapping of vicinity of Yaka Landslide (Gelendost,Turkey) using conditional probability approach in GIS

On 19 February 2007, a landslide occurred on the Alaard?ç Slope, located 1.6 km south of the town of Yaka (Gelendost, Turkey.) Subsequently, the displaced materials transformed into a mud flow in E?lence Creek and continued 750 m downstream towards the town of Yaka. The mass poised for motion in the Yaka Landslide source area and its vicinity, which would be triggered to a kinetic state by trigger factors such as heavy or sustained rainfall and/or snowmelt, poise a danger in the form of loss of life and property to Yaka with its population of 3,000. This study was undertaken to construct a susceptibility mapping of the vicinity of the Yaka Landslide’s source area and to relate it to movement of the landslide mass with the goal of prevention or mitigation of loss of life and property. The landslide susceptibility map was formulated by designating the relationship of the effecting factors that cause landslides such as lithology, gradient, slope aspect, elevation, topographical moisture index, and stream power index to the landslide map, as determined by analysis of the terrain, through the implementation of the conditional probability method. It was determined that the surface area of the Goksogut formation, which has attained lithological characteristics of clayey limestone with a broken and separated base and where area landslides occur, possesses an elevation of 1,100–1,300 m, a slope gradient of 15 °–35 ° and a slope aspect between 0 °–67.5 ° and 157 °–247 °. Loss of life and property may be avoided by the construction of structures to check the debris mass in E?lence Creek, the cleaning of the canal which passes through Yaka, the broadening of the canal’s base area, elevating the protective edges along the canal and the establishment of a protective zone at least 10-m wide on each side of the canal to deter against damage from probable landslide occurrence and mud flow.