黄河流域水文气象要素变化及与东亚夏季风的关系

为研究黄河流域水文气象要素变化规律,并揭示各要素与东亚夏季风之间的潜在关系,建立了全流域VIC水文模型、MK突变检验和MK相关检验。结果表明:从20世纪80年代中期开始,流域绝大部分地区气温上升趋势明显,而降水、蒸散发、径流深和土壤湿度呈整体减小趋势,且中游地区减幅最大。各要素与东亚夏季风相关密切,但空间差异性明显。气温与东亚夏季风强度普遍呈负相关,且宁蒙河段及内流区相关性显著;其他要素则相反,正相关显著区域主要位于河口镇到三门峡区间。研究还发现相比较降水,黄土高原径流深对夏季风强度变化更为敏感。因此,对东亚夏季风的研究可为预测黄河流域内水文过程及水资源的变化提供重要的科学参考。

Variations of hydro-meteorological variables in the Yellow River basin and their relationships with the East Asian summer monsoon

The Variable Infiltration Capacity(VIC) model and the Mann-Kendall test are employed to evaluate the temporal-spatial variations of hydro-meteorological variables in the Yellow River Basin(YRB) over the past 60 years. The relationships between those variables and the East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM) are also examined. The results show that the air-temperature has increased remarkably in the YRB since the mid-1980s; while rainfall, ET, runoff, and soil moisture have decreased in the YRB, especially in the middle reach region. Those hydro-meteorological variables in the YRB are closely related to EASM in general, although the relationships significantly vary in space. Overall, EASM shows negative relationships with air-temperature in the YRB, especially in the Ningxia-Inner Mongolia reach and inner regions. Positive relationships, however, exist between the EASM and other hydro-meteorological variables, especially in the Hekouzhen-Sanmenxia reach region. Besides, the results indicate that the runoff is more sensitive to the variation of EASM than rainfall does in the Loess Plateau. Understanding the relationships between EASM and hydro-meteorological variables has important implications for the water resources management in the YRB.