World continental modeling for water resources using system dynamics |
| |
Authors: | Toshiharu Kojiri Tomoharu Hori Junpei Nakatsuka Teng-Sheng Chong |
| |
Institution: | a Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan b Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan c Nippon Koei Co. Ltd., 4 Kojimachi 5-Chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8539, Japan d Singapore Ministry of Defence, BLK353, Choa Chu Kang Central #13-317, Singapore |
| |
Abstract: | This research assesses the severity of future water scarcity and its impact on the growth of human civilization through system dynamics modeling of the world at regional level. Six sectors of activities are modeled in each continent to represent the human society. Continental interactions such as migration and trade are also modeled to express the synergy of activities among the various continents. Results of the model simulations from 1960 to 2100 show that water scarcity, unlike other limitations such as nonrenewable resources and persistent pollution, gives severe, detrimental problems within short delays after its occurrence. |
| |
Keywords: | Continental model System dynamics Trade and migration GCM |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|