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World continental modeling for water resources using system dynamics
Authors:Toshiharu Kojiri  Tomoharu Hori  Junpei Nakatsuka  Teng-Sheng Chong
Institution:a Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan
b Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University, Yoshida Honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501, Japan
c Nippon Koei Co. Ltd., 4 Kojimachi 5-Chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102-8539, Japan
d Singapore Ministry of Defence, BLK353, Choa Chu Kang Central #13-317, Singapore
Abstract:This research assesses the severity of future water scarcity and its impact on the growth of human civilization through system dynamics modeling of the world at regional level. Six sectors of activities are modeled in each continent to represent the human society. Continental interactions such as migration and trade are also modeled to express the synergy of activities among the various continents. Results of the model simulations from 1960 to 2100 show that water scarcity, unlike other limitations such as nonrenewable resources and persistent pollution, gives severe, detrimental problems within short delays after its occurrence.
Keywords:Continental model  System dynamics  Trade and migration  GCM
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