Military surprise and the environment

Surprise is a phenomenon that can have startling effects on individuals, politics, commerce and science. The focus, however, is on military surprise, which is differentiated from military shock. The types, causes and categories of military surprise are also shown, in the context of the land battle, where surprise occurs in a majority of tactical actions, progressively more so at the operational level and, at the strategic level, nine out of ten wars start with surprise. It acts as a force multipler, increases the probability of success, and reduces the surpriser's casualties. Battlefield surprise is usually caused by the combatants, but can be generated by terrain and weather factors, including,inter alia, difficult terrain, direction, gradient, avalanches, earthquakes, dust, heat haze, fire, water, flooding, ice, mud, the seashore, mist, snow, wind, the sun, and weather forecasting. Analysis of 120 historical battles where environmental factors led to surprise found that in a majority of cases those factors were manmade, and many of the reminder were in any event planned for and exploited by military commanders. Antidotes to military surprise are briefly considered.