耕地利用转型中的生物灾害脆弱性研究

学术界迫切需要探索新的领域以提升耕地利用转型综合研究水平。本文从农业生物灾害切入,耦合耕地利用“趋利避害”动机与农业诱致性生产替代行为,基于“经济社会环境—耕地利用活动—生物灾害反馈—灾害防治应对”社会生态交互逻辑,建立了耕地利用生物灾害脆弱性转型理论框架。在国家、农业区、省级尺度开展了1988—2017年脆弱性转型研究。结果表明：① 脆弱性在国家、省级尺度发生了转型。在国家尺度,1988—2009年,脆弱性值从15.33%增长到22.45%,而2010—2017年从22.40%下降到19.49%。在省级尺度,脆弱性存在2条典型转型路径;② 在农业区尺度,脆弱性转型主要源自因城乡收入比缩小和劳均耕地提升而带来的暴露度下降,其次源自因生物灾害损失挽回率提升和生物灾害防治失控率下降而带来的应对能力提升。脆弱性转型后,主要源自作物多样性下降和化肥使用强度上升带来的敏感性继续增强。本文发展了耕地利用转型研究的综合性,论证了耕地利用生物灾害脆弱性有望成为耕地利用转型综合研究的新领域,并探讨了脆弱性管控政策。

Vulnerability to biological disasters: A novel field of cultivated land use transition research

There is an urgent need to explore a novel field to enhance the comprehensive research of cultivated land use transition. Simultaneously, few studies on the coupling research of cultivated land use pattern and function transition have been done so far. Based on these considerations, we aim at presenting a novel field of cultivated land use transition research from the perspective of cultivated land use vulnerability to biological disasters (CLUVBD). First, this study integrates the motivations of profit-seeking and loss-avoiding and induced substitution in agricultural production from the perspective of agricultural biological disasters, thus establishing a theoretical framework of the transition in CLUVBD based on the socio-ecological interaction logic of "socio-economic environment - cultivated land use - feedback of biological disasters - disaster prevention and control". Then, CLUVBD transition was diagnosed and analyzed at the national, regional, and provincial levels between 1988 and 2017 using the logic growth model, single-factor simulation, and panel data regression model. Results show that CLUVBD transition is remarkable at both national and provincial levels. The value of CLUVBD at the national level firstly increased from 15.33% to 22.45% in 1988-2009 and then decreased from 22.40% to 19.49% in 2010-2017. The transition at the provincial level shows two typical pathways. Decrease of CLUVBD is mainly derived from the decline in exposure due to the narrowing of urban-rural income ratio and the increase in cultivated land area per capita of agricultural employee, followed by the increase of adaptive capacity due to the increase of retrieved grain loss ratio and the failure ratio of biological disaster prevention. Meanwhile, as CLUVBD value turns to decrease, the sensitivity increases, which is mainly due to the decline in crop diversity and the increase of fertilizer use intensity in cultivated land. The study demonstrates that CLUVBD is expected to become a novel field of comprehensive study on cultivated land use transition. In addition, the policy proposals on CLUVBD control are also discussed.