中国新创汽车企业退出的空间格局及其影响因素

汽车产业正处于百年一遇的大变革时期。近年来,中国兴起了造车热潮,大量新创企业进入到汽车制造领域。伴随着中国汽车销售市场下行,新创汽车企业持续退出,产生了一定的负面影响。基于微观企业数据库,基于均质背景的核密度分析方法,分析新创汽车企业退出的空间格局;基于非均质背景的核密度分析方法,识别新创汽车企业高退出风险的“热点”区域;运用二值Logit回归方法分析影响新创汽车企业退出的因素。研究发现：① 高进入地区退出的新创汽车企业数量较多,企业退出空间格局整体呈现以长三角为核心的态势;中国沿海和沿长江多个城市退出的新创汽车企业规模较大。② 高退出风险“热点”区域位于江西省抚州市、宜春市、吉安市、山东省烟台市、安徽省池州市、铜陵市等地。③ 相关多样化降低了新创汽车企业的退出概率,非相关多样化增加了企业的退出概率;城市原有的整车产业关联密度越高,整车企业规模越大,新创整车企业退出的概率越低。高全球化水平、高国有工业依赖度、低税收负担率有助于降低新创汽车企业退出概率。

The spatial pattern and underlying factors of exited automobile ventures in China

The global automobile industry has been going through unprecedented and once-a-century changes, which in turn has stimulated new waves of entrepreneurship within the sector. A notable feature of the Chinese automobile industry in recent years is the emergence of new ventures. However, with the decline of automobile sales, many new ventures have exited the market, which generated negative impacts on regional economies. This study uses a detailed firm-level dataset from the "The National Enterprise Credit Information Publicity System" to analyze the spatial pattern of automobile ventures. In particular, it identifies hotspots of new automobile ventures that have ceased to operate with kernel density analysis. Drawing upon the database of "China's Annual Survey of Industrial Firms", this study employs logit regressions to identify underlying factors of exited automobile ventures in China. Specifically, this study finds that: (1) Dynamic entries and exits have been taking place. Areas with more new automobile ventures such as the Yangtze River Delta tend to have more exited firms; exited firms along the coast as well as the Yangtze River tend to be larger. (2) Firms' survival rate varies across regions. "Hotspots" of exited firms include Fuzhou, Yichun, and Ji'an in Jiangxi Province, Yantai in Shandong province, as well as Chizhou and Tongling in Anhui Province. (3) Related variety, which contributes to the generation and diffusion of new "know-how", tends to lower the probability of firm exit, while unrelated variety tends to have the opposite effect. Furthermore, higher levels of relatedness within the sector and larger sizes of the complete automobile industry tend to reduce the probability of firm exit. Higher levels of globalization, which have the potential to bring in new "know-how", tend to be associated with lower probabilities of firm exit. It is also noted that higher levels of dependence on state-owned enterprises as well as lower levels of tax tend to lower the probability of firm exit. Therefore, these results provide further evidence on the importance of industrial policies on firms' survival.