长三角房价收入比时空演变格局及收敛性研究

房价收入比是衡量房地产健康状况和探测居民住房支付能力的重要指标。以2008—2018年长三角307个区县为研究单元,运用数值-位序法则和趋势面分析对房价收入比的总体分布特征进行探究,利用LISA时间路径分析房价收入比的时空动态性特征,并检验区域房价收入比的收敛性。结果表明： ① 长三角房价收入比总体上呈上升趋势,空间上表现为东高西低、南高北低的格局,上海、浙江、江苏和安徽依次降低。② 上海和浙江南部房价收入比的空间结构更具动态性,而江苏和安徽更加稳定;长三角房价收入比的空间演化整体上具有较强的空间锁定效应和空间整合性。③ 长三角区县房价收入比整体上不存在σ收敛,但各时间段上均存在显著的绝对β收敛,且各省份内部也均存在着俱乐部收敛现象。城市群房价收入比的变动对居民的流动有着重要的指示作用,并具有扩散效应和虹吸效应。加强城市群房地产市场一体化建设,是促进城市群区域一体化发展的有效途径。

Spatial-temporal evolution patterns and convergence analysis of housing price-to-income ratio in Yangtze River Delta

The housing price-to-income ratio is an important index to measure the health status of real estate and to evaluate residents' housing affordability. Taking 307 districts and counties in the Yangtze River Delta from 2008 to 2018 as research units, this paper explores the overall distribution characteristics of the housing price-to-income ratio by using the numerical-rank rule and trend surface analysis, and uses LISA time path to analyze the spatial and temporal dynamic characteristics of the housing price-to-income ratio, and tests the convergence of the regional housing price-to-income ratio. The results show that: (1) The housing price-to-income ratio in the study area is on the rise in general, that is, the growth rate of urban residents’ income level is much lower than that of residential prices, and the housing price-to-income ratio is spatially high in the east and low in the west, and high in the south and low in the north, while Shanghai, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Anhui are decreasing in turn. (2) The spatial structure of housing price-to-income ratio in Shanghai and southern Zhejiang is more dynamic, while that in Jiangsu and Anhui is more stable; the spatial evolution of housing price-to-income ratio has a strong spatial locking effect and spatial integration as a whole. (3) There is no σ convergence in the housing price-to-income ratio, but there is a significant absolute β convergence in each time period, and there is also a club convergence phenomenon in all the provinces in the study delta. The rate of convergence slows down over time, and the regional difference in the rate of convergence is positively correlated with the level of housing price-to-income ratio. The change of housing price-to-income ratio in urban agglomerations plays an important indicative role in the flow of residents, and has diffusion effect and siphon effect. The government should guide the reasonable housing demand and consumption mode, improve the income distribution system and narrow the income gap among residents, so as to realize the goal of "the residents have their own homes, and the residents can live in peace". Strengthening the integration of real estate market in urban agglomerations will help promote the process of regional economic integration, and it is an effective way to promote the development of regional integration of urban agglomerations.