全球抗病毒药品贸易格局演化及其对新冠肺炎疫情防控的启示

新冠肺炎疫情大流行仍在肆虐全球。国际合作,尤其是在全球大流行时期保持医药卫生健康领域正常流通的特需药品贸易是抗击疫情的关键。然而,疫情期间越来越多的出口管制已经使得以往的全球药品贸易发生一定程度的改变,全球抗病毒药品贸易中的相互依存关系在大流行期间被刻画的更加清晰。本文通过梳理2000—2018年全球抗病毒药品贸易格局的时空演化特征,探讨了全球抗病毒药品贸易的产品结构及各国（地区）在全球抗病毒药品贸易体系中的地位变动,特别是揭示了中国与其他国家（地区）在全球抗病毒药品贸易体系中的相互依存关系。研究发现：① 产业结构上,以疫苗产品为主的全球抗病毒药品贸易体系正向以疫苗、含抗生素药品为主演化。两类药品出口都集中于欧美发达国家;中国则主要出口抗生素。② 拓扑结构上,全球抗病毒药品贸易网络是一典型的“核心-边缘”式的小世界网络。网络核心由美国逐步转向西欧国家。网络社团逐步聚拢,中国逐步脱离美国社团,向以德国、比利时为代表的西欧社团靠拢,并且在网络中的地位也越来越重要。③ 空间结构上,全球抗病毒药品进出口贸易格局逐步由分散走向集中,形成欧洲主导、美国衰落、亚洲兴起的发展态势。④ 在抗病毒药品贸易上,中国与主要发达国家（地区）间的相互依存关系逐步加深,而与“一带一路”沿线国家（地区）间的相互依存关系较低。

The evolution of global trade in antiviral drug and revelation for COVID-19 prevention and control

The COVID-19 pandemic continues to ravage the world. The key to combating the epidemic is the international cooperation especially to the maintenance of normal and circulating trade for essential drug in the field of health. However, the increasing number of export prohibitions and limits during the epidemic have changed the previous global drug trade. The interdependent relationship in the global antiviral drug trade has been portrayed more and more clearly. This paper analyzed the 2000-2018 global spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of the antiviral drug trade pattern, discussed the product structure and the status change of countries (regions) in the global antiviral drug trade system, and especially revealed the interdependence between China and other countries (regions). The following conclusions were drawn. Firstly, in terms of industrial structure, the global trade system dominated by vaccine products is evolving to be dominated by vaccines and antibiotics. Both drugs are mainly exported to the developed countries like Europe and the US. China mainly exports antibiotics. Secondly, in terms of topology, the global antiviral drug trading network has the typical characteristics of "core-edge" and a small world network. The core of the network has gradually shifted from the United States to Western European countries. Besides, the network communities have gradually gathered, China has gradually separated from American communities and moved closer to Western European communities represented by Germany and Belgium and China's position in the network has become increasingly important. Thirdly, in terms of spatial structure, the global import and export trade of antiviral drug has gradually shifted from decentralization to concentration, forming a global antiviral drug trade system dominated by Europe with the decline of the United States and the rise of the Asian region. Finally, the global trade in antiviral drug has highly overlapped import and export markets. The interdependence between China and developed countries (regions) is gradually deepening, while that between China and countries (regions) along the Belt and Road is relatively low.