海南5A级旅游景区不同客源市场热感压力差异——以三亚南山文化旅游区为例

以三亚南山文化旅游区为例，基于1960—2019年全国756个气象站点的逐日气象数据集，采用净等效温度（客观评价）与随机问卷调查（主观感受）相结合的方法，综合比较不同客源市场对该旅游区“热环境”的感知（即热感压力）差异。在此基础上，引入“中性状态”偏差理论，细致刻画客源地长/短期“气候记忆”对游客热感压力偏差的影响。结果发现：1）热感压力在性别和年龄上的差异明显；2）随着年龄的增长，高热感压力的比例整体上呈极显著的线性下降趋势；3）热感压力风险的“两极分化”现象说明客源地长期“气候态”与热感压力在空间上相关性较弱；4）同一气候条件下，9 d短期“气候记忆”导致的“中性状态”偏差最为显著。文章细化了气候因素对热带海滨旅游的影响，揭示了短期“气候记忆”才是影响游客热感压力偏差的重要因素，由此建议针对热感压力低风险客源地（II类，14个省份）加大对淡季旅游宣传力度，并根据年龄和性别设计旅游产品，从短期的观光型旅游向度假型的中长期旅游转变，为优化当地旅游淡季景区经营管理和营销策略提供重要的实践导向。

Difference in Thermal Comfort at the Province Scale: A Case Study of the Nanshan Cultural Tourism Zone

With the influence of global warming, changes in climate suitability have become one of the most important factors that affect tourist satisfaction. The Nanshan Cultural Tourism Zone in Sanya City was selected as the study area. The thermal comfort of tourists was subjectively evaluated with a random questionnaire survey and objectively through the Net Effective Temperature (NET), which was based on 1960-2019 daily meteorological datasets that included air temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed data obtained from 756 meteorological stations. The spatial differences in thermal comfort with long-term and/or short-term climate memory were discussed with respect to the theory of neutral state deviation. The results showed that there were significant differences in sex and age, and the risk of thermal stress in young women wasis the highest. None of the differences that emerged between men of different ages were substantial. The heat tolerance of young men was significantly higher than that of young women. With increasing age, the incidence of high thermal stress showed a significant linear decreasing trend. In addition, the proportion of high thermal stress at the province scale was classified and discussed. In category I (high risk, including eight provinces), the ratio was 75% with higher long-term NETs and increased to 88% with lower long-term NETs. In contrast, in category II (low risk, including 14 provinces), the ratio was 75% with higher long-term NETs and decreased to 63% with lower long-term NETs. The neutral state of thermal stress has a more obvious short-term memory bias. We discovered that the correlation between long-term climate state and the proportion of high thermal stress was weak. The lower the temperature in tourist source destinations, the greater the proportion of high thermal stress was. This is consistent with the hypothesis of neutral state, which verifies that the neutral state of thermal stress has a more obvious short-term climate memory bias. It is worth noting that the 9-day short-term memory leads to the most significant neutral state deviation. Compared to the air temperature, the NET had a stronger spatial consistency. We noted that it is easier to identify the neutral state deviation of thermal stress with the NET, and the NET is more suitable for the quantitative assessment of thermal comfort. This study detailed the influence of climatic factors on tropical coastal tourism and revealed that the short-term climate memory of tourist source destinations is a crucial factor affecting the thermal stress deviation of tourists. Based on the analysis results, the tourism market can be subdivided according to the differences in thermal stress between different tourist groups in the off-season, and could be influenced through various processes, such as strengthening the publicity for off-season tourism in low-risk tourist source destinations (Category II, 14 provinces), designing tourism products according to age and sex, and transforming short-term sightseeing tourism into holiday-oriented medium- or long-term tourism. These targeted suggestions can provide important practical guidance for optimizing the management and marketing strategies of local scenic spots in off-season tourism.