1990—2015年中国县市尺度人口收缩的演变特征及影响因素

近年来,区域人口收缩问题在全球范围内引起了广泛关注,并且在中国也日益明显。利用1990年、2000年和2010年人口普查数据以及2015年1%人口抽样调查数据,本文在县市尺度上分析了1990—2000年、2000—2010年和2010—2015年三个时期人口收缩区的空间特征及演化趋势,并定量探讨了其形成与演变的影响因素,主要发现如下：① 人口收缩现象在县市尺度非常明显,三个时期人口收缩区占比均超过20%;② 2000—2010年人口收缩区以大面积扩张为主要特征,东北地区、川黔渝地区、长江中游地区最为明显,而东部地区则主要集中在江苏北部和福建西部等局部范围;③ 2010—2015年人口收缩转缓慢增长成为主要特征,仅东北地区、河南等人口收缩区仍有所扩张;④ 人均GDP和非农就业占比等经济发展水平因素对人口收缩区的形成影响显著,而经济发展速度因素则与人口收缩的演变密切相关;⑤ 除经济因素外,人口自然增长因素对人口收缩区形成及演变的影响均非常显著,且其作用呈增强趋势。

The evolution of regional population decline and its driving factors at the county level in China from 1990 to 2015

The phenomenon of regional population decline has aroused much attention across the world in recent years, and it is also increasingly obvious in China. Using 1990, 2000 and 2010 population census data, and the national 1% population sample investigation data in 2015, this paper analyzes the evolution trend of regional population decline at the county level in three periods, namely 1990-2000, 2000-2010 and 2010-2015, and identified different evolution types by comparing adjacent periods. We employ a multiple logistic regression model to investigate the underlying driving factors in these processes. The main findings are as follows. (1) The phenomenon of regional population decline became very obvious at the county level, and the percentages of units with population decline in the three periods were all more than 20%. (2) The population decline units expanded significantly from 2000 to 2010, especially in the Northeast region, Sichuan-Guizhou-Chongqing region, and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, while such units were scattered in the northern part of Jiangsu province and the western part of Fujian province in the Eastern region. (3) The population decline areas presented a trend of slow growth from 2010 to 2015, and only expanded in the Northeast region and Henan province. (4) The factors of economic development level, such as the per capita GDP and the non-agricultural employment ratio, significantly influenced the formation of regional population decline, while the factors of economic development rates, including the growths of per capita GDP and the non-agricultural employment, contributed to the evolution processes of regional population change, and a low economic development rate had been a key factor driving continuous population decline. (5) In addition to economic factors, the natural population growth, including the percentage of the aging population and the birth rate, had an increasing influence on the formation and evolution of regional population decline. According to the above findings, we suggest that the central government should pay more attention to the phenomenon of regional population decline, and take appropriate measures to deal with it, such as promoting the coordinated regional development, adjusting the birth policy to improve the fertility level, and strengthening the planning practice from the perspective of population decline.