新冠疫情对中国经济的影响及政策讨论

新冠疫情对全球经济造成了严重冲击，在政策空间有限的背景下，讨论结构化政策工具和区域应对方案显得尤为重要。股票市场是国民经济的风向标，因此文章利用在A股市场上市的企业作为研究对象，从产业、主体规模以及区域等维度分析疫情对中国上市企业第一季度财务数据的影响。结果表明：1）除农、林、牧、渔业正增长外，大部分产业均遭受营运利润下滑、经营现金流减少、资产负债率提高等多重打击。各产业中，服务业面临更大挑战。个体的行为决策、政府的停工停产措施以及产业特性是造成这一变化的主要原因。2）新冠疫情对中小市值主体的影响大于大企业。疫情期间，大市值企业的营运利润能力、现金流水平得到优化，资产负债结构表现稳定。这主要是由运营能力差异和马太效应所造成的。3）制造业、服务业和建筑与房地产业上，发达地区相较于欠发达地区承受了更大冲击，这主要受地方人口结构和土地价格影响。金融业上，北京、上海、广东均出现了扰动，而江苏则表现出增长趋势，区域金融业结构特征和企业经营能力是造成这一现象的主要原因。医药产业受到一定程度的冲击，但产业基础好的地区仍出现增长态势，这主要是由医药需求出现取消或推迟、部分药物和设备需求存在紧迫性、优势区域需要承担相应的社会责任造成的。在此基础上，文章讨论了采取更加积极的财政政策、深入优化企业融资环境和差异化选择区域政策工具等政策建议。

The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Economy and Discussion of Policies?Evidence from Listed Companies

The Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has collapsed the world’s economy. A discussion of the reaction to structural and regional policies is imperative for the Chinese government because the implementation of policies is limited. As the state of the stock market indicates the direction of the economy, the financial reports of some enterprises from China’s Stock market for the first quarter of 2020 were collected and analyzed. This was the period in which the productivity of the enterprises were severely impacted by the coronavirus pandemic with respect to industry, actors’ scale, and region. The results show: 1) Except agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, all other industries had lesser profit and limited operating cash flow, and their balance sheets had deteriorated. The services industry faced more challenges than the others. The behavioral decisions made by individuals, the governmental policies for lock-down, and the nature of industries were responsible for these detrimental changes; 2) The companies with small and medium market value were affected more than big enterprises. In Q1, big companies made more profits, optimized their operating cash flows, and stabilized their balance sheets. This is mainly because of the difference of operating ability among actors and the Matthew effect; 3） Owing to the differences in the population structure and land price in different regions, the manufacture, service, and building and estate industries faced greater challenges in the developed provinces than in the less developed regions. The pandemic adversely affected the finance industry in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangdong; however, it showed improvement in Jiangsu. It has been observed that the financial structure in regions, and operating ability of companies were the main reasons for the negative impact on the finance industry. The medical industry was affected but progressed in areas with better industrial basement. This was because the demand for certain medicines and devices peaked during the period and the areas with better industrial base played more important role in fighting the virus. In this context, the authors discussed the two approaches: “Adopting a more proactive fiscal policy and deeply optimizing financial environment of enterprises,” and “Choosing policies implements regionally.” It can be argued that unilateral expansion of demand will result in a larger gap between demand and supply. This is disadvantageous because the global production system mainly depends on the manufacturing industry in China. The government should not only focus on resumption, but also start investment of new or traditional infrastructures. Moreover, owing to the uncertainty of the market, the factors that improve the balance sheet are few. Therefore, helping more entities by financial market and making the social capital more active have become the priorities for the government. In order to improve the manufacturing and service industry, undeveloped regions are encouraged to expand job opportunities, and the residents in developed regions are encouraged to consume more services and decrease the operating costs of the service industry. This can positively contribute to restoring the economy. Some measures adopted to benefit financial and building and estate industries are encouraging local commercial banks in medium-sized and small cities to provide loans to Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SMEs), boost infrastructure construction in developed regions, and loosen control of estate development. The policy makers of the medical industry were advised to focus on long-term development. Optimizing the financial environments for SMEs in medical industry and developing a multi-core, nation-wide distribution of industry are necessary for China.