中国村庄空间分布规律及其影响因素

村庄是乡村治理和乡村振兴的基本单元,开展村庄空间分布特征及其影响因素研究对全面推进乡村振兴国家战略落地具有重要的理论价值和实践意义。本文在解析村庄系统演进生命周期规律的基础上,系统集成村庄点位、地理环境、地理区位、交通条件、社会经济等多源数据,综合运用缓冲区分析、核密度估计、空间自相关分析、Ripley's K函数等方法,刻画了中国村庄空间分布特征,识别了村庄空间分异的影响因子,揭示了中国村庄的空间分异规律。结果表明：① 村庄的演进遵循形成、发展、稳定、衰退与振兴的“生命周期”规律,其演进受自然地理环境和人文社会经济要素共同影响,不同地区村庄演进的速度、强度、方向和结果各异。② 中国村庄分布密度为0.35个/km ²,整体上呈现“南多北少、南聚北散”、“东多西少、东聚西散”的特征,以长江中下游及淮河流域等地区村庄分布最为密集。以“胡焕庸”线为界,东南半壁村庄密度显著高于西北半壁。③ 全国省、县、乡级尺度上村庄核密度值的莫兰指数分别为0.58、0.86、0.91,呈现明显的空间聚集特征;各省内村庄空间分布呈倒“U”型分布模式,不同省份村庄空间分布模式差异明显。④ 中国村庄分布格局是地理环境、区位条件、社会经济要素交互耦合作用的结果。在坡度6°~8°、海拔0~200 m、降雨量1100~1200 mm、年均温15~19 ℃、人为土和栽培植被等条件下村庄分布较为集聚,且村庄沿道路与河流聚集分布特征明显,在沿道路和河流100~300 m缓冲区内村庄密度最大,随缓冲距离增加村庄密度逐渐降低。全面推进乡村振兴战略背景下,亟待系统开展乡村衰退成因与动力机制解析、衰退乡村地理空间识别与地域类型划分、乡村振兴可行途径与地域模式研究。

The spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of Chinese villages

Village is the object of rural governance and revitalization. It is of great scientific value to carry out the research on the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors for comprehensively promoting the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy. This study systematically integrated the multi-source data such as the longitude and latitude coordinates of the village, geo-environment, traffic conditions and socio-economic level, and comprehensively applied spatial analysis, kernel density estimation and Ripley's K-function to describe the spatial distribution characteristics of Chinese villages and identify the influencing factors of village spatial differentiation. The results demonstrated that the evolution of villages follows the life cycle laws of formation, development, stability, decline, and revitalization, which is affected by the natural geographical environment and human, social, and economic factors. The speed, intensity, direction, and outcome of village evolution vary across regions over time. Further analysis results showed that the distribution density of villages in China is 0.353 per square kilometer. Overall, the number of villages in China is larger in the south than in the north, and larger in the east than in the west, and characterized by agglomeration in the southeast and dispersion in the northwest. Villages are most densely distributed in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the Huaihe River Basin. With Hu's line as the boundary, the density of villages in the southeast is higher than that in the northwest. The Moran indexes of the kernel density of villages on the scales of province, county and township are 0.580, 0.861 and 0.910, respectively, showing obvious spatial aggregation characteristics. The spatial distribution of villages in each province presents an inverted U-shaped pattern, and the difference is obvious between provinces. The distribution pattern of Chinese villages is the result of the interactive coupling of geographical environment, location conditions, and social and economic factors. The spatial distribution of Chinese villages is relatively concentrated under the conditions of a slope of 6°-8°, an altitude of less than 200 m, rainfall of 1100-1200 mm, average annual temperature of 15-19 ℃, and anthropogenic soil and cultivated vegetation. The spatial distribution of villages is clustered along roads and rivers. The density of villages in the buffer zone of 100-300 m around roads and rivers is the largest, and gradually decreases as the buffer distance increases. Under the background of comprehensively promoting the strategy of rural revitalization, it is urgent to systematically analyze the causes and dynamic mechanism of rural recession, identify the geographical distribution and types of declining villages, and explore the feasible ways and regional models of rural revitalization.