东北地区县域粮劳变化耦合模式与乡村发展类型

本文选取2001年、2008年和2015年3期截面数据,综合运用标准差椭圆等空间分析法和非参数检验等数理统计法,对东北地区183个县域粮食产量与农业劳动力变化的耦合模式及其表征的乡村发展类型进行研究。结果表明：① 2001—2015年东北地区总的粮劳变化耦合模式在2008年发生转折,2001—2008年为粮增劳减模式,2008—2015年为粮劳同增模式,这实际上是一种在多因素综合作用下发生的退化。② 县域层面,2008年前后两时段东北地区粮增劳减耦合模式的比例由45.90%下降为37.16%,同时粮减劳增与粮劳同减耦合模式的比例明显上升。从空间格局看,粮劳变化耦合模式转换的差异明显。③ 县域粮劳变化耦合模式可以较好的表征相应的乡村发展类型。县域乡村发展类型实际上具有一定的层级性和结构演进规律。④ 东北地区各县域乡村发展类型所面临的约束和机遇不同,应有针对性的采取差别化的推进策略。

Coupled modes of grain yield and agricultural labor changes and rural development types at county level in Northeast China

Rural revitalization needs to recognize and address the diversity of rural areas. Based on statistical data of grain yield and agricultural labor, this paper analyzes the coupled modes of the changes of grain yield and agricultural labor as well as their representations of rural development typology of 183 counties in Northeast China by using standard deviation ellipse, non-parametric test, and so on. The results show that: (1) during 2001-2015, the coupled mode of grain yield and agricultural labor changes of the whole study region turned in 2008. During 2001-2008, its grain yield increased while agricultural labor decreased; but during 2008-2015, both its grain yield and agricultural labor increased. Actually, this is due to degradation that resulted from the comprehensive interactions of many factors. (2) At county level, the proportion of grain yield increased while agricultural labor decreased counties in Northeast China shrank from 45.90% in 2001-2008 to 37.16% in 2008-2015, and the numbers of grain yield decreased while agricultural labor increased counties and grain yield and agricultural labor both decreased counties grew obviously. Spatially, the coupled modes of grain yield and agricultural labor changes evolved in differentiated patterns. (3) Based on the coupled modes of grain yield and agricultural labor changes and other supplementary indicators, this paper classifies the rural development typology at county level in Northeast China into five categories: extensive expansion type, agriculture modernization type, planting-breeding incorporated type, urbanizing type, and eco-environment prioritized type. The results show that these rural development types have certain hierarchical nature and present a structural evolution. Therefore, the coupled modes of grain yield and agricultural labor changes can represent the rural development typology well. (4) Different rural development types in Northeast China are facing different constraints and opportunities. In the light of these facts, this paper proposes the differential promotion strategies targeting specific rural development types. The approaches and strategies developed in this paper could be applied in other regions of China to analyze and address the diversity of rural areas.