地方政府土地出让干预对区域工业碳排放影响的对比分析——以中国8大经济区为例

探讨不同区域地方政府干预对碳排放的影响差异,对于中国推进碳减排战略、协调区域经济社会发展具有重要意义。鉴于此,论文基于地方政府土地出让的视阈,以中国8大经济区为研究对象,有机耦合STIRPAT模型与CKC模型,构建形成STIRPAT拓展模型,并使用2007—2016年中国28个省(市、自治区)的工业面板数据,对比考察8大经济区政府土地出让干预对区域碳排放的影响差异。结果表明:不同经济区的地方政府土地出让干预对区域碳排放的影响存在显著差异。其中,同为CKC“倒N”型的北部沿海、南部沿海、长江中游经济区,其政府土地出让干预对区域碳排放的影响呈现出北部沿海经济区为负、南部沿海经济区为正、长江中游经济区无显著影响的差异效果;同为CKC“倒U”型的东北、西南和西北经济区,其政府土地出让干预对区域碳排放的影响,东北和西南经济区都显著为负,西北经济区未表现出显著影响;同为CKC“U”型的东部沿海和黄河中游经济区,其政府土地出让干预对碳排放也呈现出前者为负、后者为正的相反影响。研究结果可为制定碳减排差别化政策、协调区域可持续发展提供参考。

Comparative study of the impact of local government land transfer intervention on regional industrial carbon emissions:An example of eight economic zones

Examining the difference in the impact of regional government intervention on carbon emissions is of great significance for China to promote carbon emission reduction strategies and coordinate regional economic and social development. In view of this, based on the local government industrial land transfer data and taking China's eight economic zones as examples, this study used the organic coupled CO₂ environmental Kuznets curve (CKC) model and the stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence and technology (STIRPAT) model construct the STIRPAT expansion model, and used the industrial panel data of 28 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) from 2007 to 2016 to compare and analyze the differential impacts of government land transfer intervention on industrial carbon emissions. The research results show that there are significant differences in the impact of government land transfer intervention on regional carbon emissions in different economic zones. Among the eight zones, the northern coastal, southern coastal and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River economic zones have the same inverted-N type CKC. However, the impact of government land transfer intervention on regional carbon emissions shows the different effects with the northern coastal economic zone as negative, the southern coastal economic zone as positive and the middle reaches of the Yangtze River economic zone without significant effect. The northeastern, southwestern and northwestern economic zone have the same inverted-U type CKC, and government land transfer intervention has a significant negative impact on regional carbon emissions in the northeastern, southwestern economic zone, while insignificant impact in northwestern economic zone. The eastern coastal region and the middle reaches of the Yellow River have the same U type CKC, and the government land transfer intervention on carbon emissions also show the opposite effects, with the former being negative and the latter being positive. The result of the analysis may provide a reference for differentiated energy saving and emission reduction policy and regional coordinated sustainable development.