贵州省拐卖儿童犯罪的多维时空格局及影响因素研究

拐卖儿童犯罪作为一种影响恶劣的社会现象,已引起公众和学界的广泛关注。基于犯罪地理学视角的相关研究起步较晚且侧重宏观分析,当前亟须聚焦犯罪热区作精细解析。本文以中国拐卖犯罪主要源区贵州省为研究区,采用文本分析、数理统计、空间计量等方法,揭示被拐儿童的社会人口学特征及拐卖儿童犯罪的多维时空格局与影响因素。结果表明：① 1~6岁男童为核心受害对象,拐卖导致的儿童迁移以城乡间交叉流动为主。② 犯罪在1944—2018年间呈“中段高发、首尾低发”态势,空间上集中于贵州西北半壁,尤以贵阳为最,微观地点上高发于人员流动频繁的开放型空间。③ 犯罪路径以“黔入东部”和“川滇入黔”为主,以省内跨市流动为辅。④ 犯罪主要受人口自然变动、生育政策、流动人口和经济发展水平等的影响。

The multidimensional spatio-temporal pattern and influencing factors of child trafficking in Guizhou province,China

Child trafficking is a long-term criminal phenomenon in China. As one of the serious crimes and complex social problems, it has attracted extensive attention from the public and academic community. Since related studies from the perspective of crime geography started late and most of these studies worked on the pattern of the country, it is urgent to concentrate on high-risk areas and key groups. In this research, we take Guizhou province, one of the major origins of child trafficking in China, as the study area. We use a series of techniques including text analysis, mathematical statistics, and spatial analysis to examine the social-demographic characteristics, spatio-temporal patterns, and influencing factors of child trafficking in Guizhou. Major findings include: (1) more males than females are trafficked in Guizhou, with males aged 1-6 as the main group, followed by aged 12-15, aged 0 and aged 7-11. The trafficked children from Guizhou to other provinces, mainly flow from urban to rural areas while children flow into Guizhou mainly from rural to urban areas. The cross-flow between urban and rural areas is the highest crime flow mode. (2) From 1944 to 2018, the crimes of child trafficking in Guizhou can be divided into three stages: extremely low growth stage (from 1944 to 1984), high fluctuation growth stage (from 1985 to 2000), and low and medium growth stage (from 2001 to 2018). At the same time, the summer half-year and the weekday witness higher incidences of child trafficking months and weeks. (3) At the city level, the crime is predominantly found in the northwestern half of Guizhou, especially in Guiyang city. At the county level, the crime shows a pattern of divergent decline in Guiyang and its surrounding areas. At the site level, it is more common in the open space where people move frequently. The overall crime path is “from Guizhou to the eastern regions of China” and “from Sichuan and Yunnan into Guizhou”, and there is an intercity flow in Guizhou. (4) The crime of child trafficking in Guizhou is mainly affected by the natural population change, family planing policy, floating population, and economic development level.