Distribution of the energy release, b-values and seismic hazard in Egypt

A review of the seismicity and seismic history of Egypt indicates areas of high activity concentrated along Oligocene-Miocene faults. This supports the idea of recent activation of the Oligocene-Miocene stress cycle. There are similarities in the spatial distribution of recent and historical epicenters. Destructive earthquakes in Egypt are mostly concentrated in the highly populated areas of the Nile Valley and Nile Delta. Some big earthquakes located near the plate boundary as far away as Turkey and Crete were strongly felt in Egypt. The distribution of the energy release shows a possible tectonic connection between active zones in Egypt and the complicated tectonic zones in Turkey and Crete through geologically verified fault systems. The distribution of intensity shows a strong directivity along the Nile Valley. This is due to the presence of a thick layer of loose sediments on top of the hard rock in the Nile Valley graben. The distribution of b-values indicates two different zones, comparable with stable and unstable shelf areas. Stress loads in the northern Red Sea and northern Egypt are similar. Geologically, northern Egypt is a part of the Unstable Shelf area. The probability to have an earthquake with intensity V or larger within 94 years is more than 80% in the Nile Valley and Nile Delta areas, Egypt-Mediterranean coastal area, Aswan High Dam area, Gulf of Aqaba-Levant Fault zone and in the oil fields of the Gulf of Suez. The maximum expected intensity in these areas and within the same period is V–VI for a 80% probability and VII–VIII+ for a 10% probability. Intensity VIII–IX has been reported for several earthquakes in both historical and recent time.