| Abstract: | Continuous Rapid Deformation (CRD) may be an important precursor before some strong earthquakes with magnitude greater than MsS. 0. This paper shows some characteristics of CRD, and proposes a method for identifying precursory CRD that is closely related to the process of earthquake preparation. From the deformation data in Yunnan-Sichan provinces, we obtained the tilt and strain thresholds of 4.5ms/d and 5 × 10-7/d, respectively. Compared the tilt CRD in this region before 9 earthquakes (short-term fore-shocks and after-shocks not included) with magnitude greater than 5.8 in the period from January of 1990 to May of 2001, we found that 8 earthquakes occurred within 5 months after the CRD with a duration of more than 20 days and a tilt velocity of more than 4. 5ms/d without false prediction, but with one failure in earthquake prediction. For the strain CRD, 5 earthquakes occurred after the CRD; there was no false prediction, but 4 earthquakes unpredicted. We have tried to increase the thresholds, but found either the failure ratio or the rate of false prediction increased, while the success rate not obvious increased. |
