Numerical weather prediction over the Eastern Caribbean using Florida State University (FSU) global and regional spectral models and multi-model/multi-analysis super-ensemble |
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Authors: | M Mayers T N Krishnamurti C Depradine L Moseley |
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Institution: | (1) Department of Computer Science, Mathematics and Physics, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, Barbados, BB;(2) Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, US;(3) Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Husbands St. James, Barbados, West Indies, BB |
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Abstract: | Summary
A month-long short-range numerical weather prediction experiment using the Florida State University’s (FSU) global and regional
models and the multi-model/multi-analysis super-ensemble over the Eastern Caribbean domain is presented in this paper. The
paper also investigates weather prediction capabilities of FSU global and regional models by examining the root mean square
errors (RMSE) for the wind and precipitation fields.
Super-ensemble forecasting, a new statistical approach to weather forecasting, is used over this domain. Here, forecasts from
a number of numerical models provide the input and statistical combinations of these forecasts produce the super-ensemble
forecast. A similar approach is used for the precipitation field where one model using different rain rate algorithms is used
to generate different model outputs.
The results show that the super-ensemble method produces forecasts that are superior to those obtained from the ensemble members.
Received May 29, 2000/Revised February 15, 2001 |
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